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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.