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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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